Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(12:07) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to DEN 29, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.67 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model