4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 1-P.McAfee punts 35 yards to DEN 26, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model