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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 51

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to IND 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model