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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to DEN 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 31-O.Bolden.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP