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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 71

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 18 for no gain (31-O.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP