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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ARI
73.2%
CLE
26.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.191 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Carson Palmer (ARI): +0.306 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Wind 21 mph

Predicted Final Score

ARI 26
–
CLE 18
Projected margin: ARI by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

ARI

Darren Fells TE Out Shoulder
Alex Okafor LB Out Calf
Jerraud Powers CB Questionable Hamstring
John Brown WR Questionable Hamstring
Brittan Golden WR Questionable Groin
Justin Bethel CB Probable Foot
Deone Bucannon S Probable Elbow
Dwight Freeney LB Probable Finger
Frostee Rucker DT Probable Quadricep
Lyle Sendlein C Probable Ankle

CLE

Andrew Hawkins WR Out Concussion
Rob Housler TE Out Hamstring
Jordan Poyer S Out Shoulder
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Ankle
Josh McCown QB Questionable right Shoulder
Craig Robertson LB Questionable Ankle
Isaiah Crowell RB Probable Ribs
Joe Haden CB Probable Concussion
John Hughes DE Probable Knee
Paul Kruger LB Probable Illness
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow
Marlon Moore WR Probable Hamstring
K'Waun Williams CB Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 34
–
CLE 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:07 TD ARI (8:07) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 87-T.Niklas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CLE 0
  • Q1 02:45 TD CLE (2:45) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 83-B.Hartline for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-F.Rucker]. ARI 7 – CLE 6
  • Q2 14:53 TD CLE (14:53) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 82-G.Barnidge for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-M.Golden]. ARI 7 – CLE 13
  • Q2 05:01 TD CLE (5:01) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 83-B.Hartline for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [20-D.Bucannon]. Penalty on ARI-32-T.Mathieu, Defensive Holding, declined. ARI 7 – CLE 20
  • Q2 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 7-C.Catanzaro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 10 – CLE 20
  • Q3 11:56 TD ARI (11:56) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 15-M.Floyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – CLE 20
  • Q3 07:39 TD ARI (7:39) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 87-T.Niklas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI # 53 (Shipley) reports as an eligible receiver ARI 23 – CLE 20
  • Q4 09:35 TD ARI (9:35) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-D.Bryant]. ARI 30 – CLE 20
  • Q4 02:20 FG ARI (2:20) 7-C.Catanzaro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 34 – CLE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:41) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 54 yards to ARI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:04) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to CLE 27, Center-82-M.Leach. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 34 for 7 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:37) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to CLE 16, Center-82-M.Leach. 11-T.Benjamin ran ob at CLE 28 for 12 yards (20-D.Bucannon).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:36) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to ARI 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-P.Peterson to 50 for 5 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:02) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to ARI 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 29 for 6 yards (24-J.Bademosi).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:43) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 56 yards to ARI 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-P.Peterson to CLE 48 for 38 yards (34-I.Crowell).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:22) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 45 yards to ARI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:17) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 50 yards to ARI 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 9 for 1 yard (21-J.Gilbert).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%

    (2:20) 7-C.Catanzaro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete short right to 11-T.Benjamin (28-J.Bethel).