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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 17

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 7-C.Catanzaro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.03 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 17, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model