Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(5:41) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 54 yards to ARI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.17 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model