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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 20 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 50 yards to ARI 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 9 for 1 yard (21-J.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.34 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP