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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 20 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(4:22) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 45 yards to ARI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model