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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to CLE 27, Center-82-M.Leach. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 34 for 7 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model