4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 16:05 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

OAK
45.0%
SD
55.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV on 7 more days rest than LAC
  • LAC defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 23
–
SD 26
Projected margin: SD by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

OAK

Denico Autry DT Out Concussion
Justin Ellis DT Doubtful Ankle
Taiwan Jones RB Probable Foot
Latavius Murray RB Probable Shoulder
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

SD

Craig Mager CB Out Hamstring
Eric Weddle S Out Groin
Tourek Williams LB Out Foot
Manti Te'o LB Doubtful Ankle
Antonio Gates TE Questionable Knee
King Dunlap T Questionable Concussion
Steve Johnson WR Questionable Hamstring
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Hip
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Ankle
Chris Hairston T Questionable Ankle
Chris Watt C Questionable Groin
Jahleel Addae S Probable Back
Kyle Emanuel LB Probable Shoulder
D.J. Fluker G Probable Ankle
Orlando Franklin G Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 37
–
SD 29

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:51 TD LV (12:51) 28-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – SD 0
  • Q1 05:23 FG LV (5:23) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 10 – SD 0
  • Q1 01:21 FG LAC (1:21) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. OAK 10 – SD 3
  • Q2 13:11 TD LV (13:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 88-C.Walford for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 16 – SD 3
  • Q2 09:31 FG LV (9:31) 11-S.Janikowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 20 – SD 3
  • Q2 04:43 FG LV (4:43) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 23 – SD 3
  • Q2 01:12 TD LV (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 89-A.Cooper for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 29 – SD 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG LAC (:02) 2-J.Lambo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. OAK 30 – SD 6
  • Q3 10:49 TD LV (10:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 36 – SD 6
  • Q4 13:07 TD LAC (13:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 89-L.Green for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 37 – SD 12
  • Q4 06:03 TD LAC (6:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 39-D.Woodhead for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 37 – SD 19
  • Q4 00:10 TD LAC (:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 39-D.Woodhead for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 37 – SD 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:25) 5-M.Scifres punts 42 yards to LV 34, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-T.Carrie to LV 46 for 12 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (5:23) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%

    (1:21) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%

    (9:31) 11-S.Janikowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (8:09) 5-M.Scifres punts 43 yards to LV 42, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-T.Carrie to LAC 47 for 11 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (4:43) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:53) 5-M.Scifres punts 39 yards to LV 33, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-T.Carrie to LV 37 for 4 yards (25-D.Stuckey, 51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 18 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:53) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to LV 29, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-T.Carrie to LV 34 for 5 yards (53-K.Conner).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 20 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 23%

    (7:01) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to LAC 15, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-22-T.Jones.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:36) 5-M.Scifres punts 41 yards to LV 33, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-T.Carrie to LAC 49 for 18 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 33%

    (2:59) 7-M.King punts 30 yards to LAC 17, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 48%

    (11:30) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 40%

    (3:22) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.