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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 37 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 7-M.King punts 30 yards to LAC 17, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model