Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 37

(9:53) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to LV 29, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-T.Carrie to LV 34 for 5 yards (53-K.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.29 EP
73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model