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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.53 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP