Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 37

(5:36) 5-M.Scifres punts 41 yards to LV 33, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-T.Carrie to LAC 49 for 18 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.96 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model