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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

JAX
55.1%
TB
44.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (TB): -0.193 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
TB 21
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

JAX

Marqise Lee WR Out Hamstring
John Lotulelei LB Out Concussion
Denard Robinson RB Out Knee
James Sample S Doubtful Shoulder
Paul Posluszny LB Questionable Ankle
Sen'Derrick Marks DT Questionable Knee
Julius Thomas TE Questionable Hand
Sergio Brown S Probable Calf
Chris Clemons DE Probable Knee
Aaron Colvin CB Probable Shoulder
Davon House CB Probable Illness
Allen Hurns WR Probable Ankle
Marcedes Lewis TE Probable Knee

TB

Johnthan Banks CB Doubtful Knee
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Doubtful Shoulder
Russell Shepard WR Doubtful Hamstring
Evan Smith C Doubtful Ankle
Logan Mankins G Questionable Groin
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Shoulder
Luke Stocker TE Questionable Hip
Major Wright S Probable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 31
–
TB 38

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:22 FG TB (10:22) 10-C.Barth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. JAX 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 14:29 TD JAX (14:29) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 88-A.Hurns for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – TB 3
  • Q2 10:46 FG TB (10:46) 10-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. JAX 7 – TB 6
  • Q2 07:34 TD TB (7:34) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 22-D.Martin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – TB 12
  • Q2 02:31 TD TB (2:31) 79-R.Fragel reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – TB 19
  • Q2 00:40 TD JAX (:40) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – TB 20
  • Q3 10:07 FG JAX (10:07) 2-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 17 – TB 20
  • Q3 03:08 TD JAX (3:08) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 24-T.Yeldon for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 23 – TB 20
  • Q3 00:34 FG TB (:34) 10-C.Barth 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 76-Smith eligible JAX 24 – TB 23
  • Q3 00:24 TD TB (:24) 33-C.Grant left end to JAX 11 for -9 yards (94-G.Johnson). FUMBLES (94-G.Johnson), RECOVERED by TB-56-J.Smith at JAX 3. 56-J.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 24 – TB 29
  • Q4 08:30 TD TB (8:30) 79-R.Fragel reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 24 – TB 37
  • Q4 01:10 TD JAX (1:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 30 – TB 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 91%

    (10:22) 10-C.Barth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:40) 19-B.Anger punts 63 yards to TB 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-33-C.Grant.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

    (4:40) 5-J.Schum punts 23 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-46-J.Lane.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 78%

    (10:46) 10-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:22) 19-B.Anger punts 61 yards to TB 25, Center-46-C.Tinker. 43-B.Rainey to JAX 17 for 58 yards (35-D.McCray).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (10:07) 2-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 74%

    (:34) 10-C.Barth 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 76-Smith eligible

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:41) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TB 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 43-B.Rainey to JAX 40 for 25 yards (58-J.Tripp).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:33) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to TB 27, Center-46-C.Tinker. 43-B.Rainey to TB 38 for 11 yards (26-J.Evans). PENALTY on TB-17-D.Dye, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 29.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 39%

    (2:59) 5-J.Schum punts 29 yards to JAX 14, Center-48-A.DePaola. 81-B.Walters to JAX 14 for no gain (51-D.Lansanah).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 18 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns pushed ob at TB 5 for 59 yards (58-K.Alexander).