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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 10-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.15 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model