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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns pushed ob at TB 5 for 59 yards (58-K.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.01 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -1.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model