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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 19-B.Anger punts 63 yards to TB 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-33-C.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model