Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to TB 27, Center-46-C.Tinker. 43-B.Rainey to TB 38 for 11 yards (26-J.Evans). PENALTY on TB-17-D.Dye, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model