4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 5-J.Schum punts 29 yards to JAX 14, Center-48-A.DePaola. 81-B.Walters to JAX 14 for no gain (51-D.Lansanah).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.14 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model