Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- TB offense: -0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- CAR offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- Jameis Winston (TB): -0.128 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CAR defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 4
CAR
TB
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:13 FG CAR (12:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 3 – TB 0
- Q1 10:53 TD CAR (10:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 82-B.Myers INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman at TB 46. 24-J.Norman for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Norman, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 9 – TB 0
- Q1 07:08 FG TB (7:08) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Brindza 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. CAR 10 – TB 3
- Q2 10:55 TD CAR (10:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 19-T.Ginn. Carolina challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 19-T.Ginn for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – TB 3
- Q2 04:28 TD TB (4:28) 22-D.Martin right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – TB 9
- Q3 12:38 TD CAR (12:38) 28-J.Stewart left guard to CAR 41 for 8 yards (23-C.Conte). FUMBLES (23-C.Conte), recovered by CAR-84-E.Dickson at CAR 43. 84-E.Dickson for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 23 – TB 10
- Q3 07:33 TD CAR (7:33) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 19-T.Ginn for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 30 – TB 10
- Q3 02:57 TD TB (2:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 34-C.Sims for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 31 – TB 16
- Q4 13:32 FG CAR (13:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 34 – TB 17
- Q4 04:20 FG CAR (4:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 37 – TB 17
- Q4 01:03 TD TB (1:03) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 83-V.Jackson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 37 – TB 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%
(12:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 85%
(7:08) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Brindza 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 38Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 55%
(2:57) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(15:00) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to CAR 25, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 25 for no gain.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:31) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at TB 19 for no gain (42-C.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(1:55) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to TB 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at TB 45 for 15 yards (56-A.Klein).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 83%
(12:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Brindza 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 63%
(4:03) 64-K.Pamphile reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin left end pushed ob at CAR 11 for 24 yards (33-T.Boston).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(13:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(12:39) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to CAR 34, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 39 for 5 yards (96-T.Fatinikun).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 35Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 63%
(8:24) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 21 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 9 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(4:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 73 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(2:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left end pushed ob at TB 29 for 2 yards (99-K.Short). Carolina challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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