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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 6

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model