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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 64-K.Pamphile reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin left end pushed ob at CAR 11 for 24 yards (33-T.Boston).

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model