4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Carolina Panthers 37

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left end pushed ob at TB 29 for 2 yards (99-K.Short). Carolina challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.00 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model