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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:08) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Brindza 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.81 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model