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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Brindza 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.09 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model