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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 16:05 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SF
25.8%
ARI
74.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.287 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.491 vs Colin Kaepernick (SF) +0.167 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 20
–
ARI 30
Projected margin: ARI by 10 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

SF

Reggie Bush RB Doubtful Calf
Bruce Ellington WR Questionable Ankle
Vance McDonald TE Questionable Knee
Blake Bell TE Probable Back
Alex Boone G Probable Shoulder
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Not Injury Related
Carlos Hyde RB Probable Quadricep
Torrey Smith WR Probable Knee

ARI

J.J. Nelson WR Out Shoulder
Andre Ellington RB Doubtful Knee
Mike Iupati G Questionable Knee
Deone Bucannon S Probable Groin
LaMarr Woodley LB Probable Shoulder
Tony Jefferson S Probable Hamstring
Alex Okafor LB Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 7
–
ARI 47

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:15 TD ARI (11:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 85-V.Davis INTERCEPTED by 28-J.Bethel [92-F.Rucker] at SF 21. 28-J.Bethel for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 09:14 TD ARI (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right intended for 81-A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-C.Campbell] at SF 33. 32-T.Mathieu for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 13
  • Q2 15:00 TD ARI (15:00) 23-C.Johnson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 20
  • Q2 07:55 TD ARI (7:55) 23-C.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 27
  • Q2 02:11 TD SF (2:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ARI 28
  • Q2 00:01 FG ARI (:01) 7-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. SF 7 – ARI 31
  • Q3 12:35 TD ARI (12:35) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – ARI 37
  • Q3 04:24 SAF ARI (4:24) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (51-K.Minter). SF 7 – ARI 40
  • Q4 05:21 TD ARI (5:21) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – ARI 46

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 41%

    (12:18) 2-D.Butler punts 32 yards to SF 13, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 38-J.Hayne.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ARI 19, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 19 for 4 yards (31-L.McCray).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 18 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to ARI 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at ARI 20.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:21) 2-D.Butler punts 33 yards to SF 44, Center-82-M.Leach. 38-J.Hayne pushed ob at ARI 19 for 37 yards (26-R.Johnson).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to ARI 17, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-B.Golden to ARI 27 for 10 yards (49-B.Miller).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 54%

    (4:35) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to SF 1, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 54%

    (:42) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 20 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 56 yards to ARI 21, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 95%

    (6:49) ARI #53-Shipley reports as eligible. 30-S.Taylor up the middle to SF 10 for 2 yards (59-A.Lynch).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 10-B.Golden.