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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 40 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(:42) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.64 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP