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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to ARI 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.76 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model