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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 38 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to SF 1, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.20 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model