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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 2-D.Butler punts 32 yards to SF 13, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 38-J.Hayne.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.93 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model