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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 19 for 4 yards (31-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.96 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP