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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Thursday 2015-09-10 · 20:30 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

PIT
37.1%
NE
62.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): -0.083 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
NE 24
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PIT

Landry Jones QB Out Concussion

NE

Bryan Stork C Out Concussion
Travaris Cadet RB Questionable Hamstring
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Knee
Tavon Wilson S Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 21
–
NE 28

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:16 TD NE (11:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 04:06 TD NE (4:06) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 87-Gronkowski 15th career multi-TD game. PIT 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:07 FG PIT (:07) 8-J.Scobee 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – NE 14
  • Q3 10:43 TD NE (10:43) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 88-S.Chandler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – NE 20
  • Q3 06:48 TD PIT (6:48) 78-A.Villanueva reported in as eligible. 46-W.Johnson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – NE 21
  • Q4 11:42 FG PIT (11:42) 8-J.Scobee 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 14 – NE 21
  • Q4 09:24 TD NE (9:24) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 23rd career game with 4+ TD passes, tying Brett Favre for 3rd most all-time. NE 12-Brady 396 career TD passes, tying Drew Brees for 4th most all-time. NE 87-Gronkowski 3rd career 3-TD game. PIT 14 – NE 27
  • Q4 00:07 TD PIT (:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – NE 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 81%

    (9:44) 8-J.Scobee 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 40%

    (7:48) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to PIT 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:25) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to NE 19, Center-60-G.Warren. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 15 yards (98-V.Williams). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 20.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 77%

    (8:43) 8-J.Scobee 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 62%

    (:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 88-D.Heyward-Bey to NE 31 for 4 yards (24-B.Fletcher; 91-J.Collins).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 81%

    (:07) 8-J.Scobee 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:27) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to PIT 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-A.Brown to PIT 27 for 3 yards (18-M.Slater; 55-J.Freeny).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (11:42) 8-J.Scobee 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:36) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to NE 36, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. Penalty on PIT-98-V.Williams, Illegal Formation, declined. PENALTY on NE-53-E.Martin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 36.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:36) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to PIT 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:09) 6-R.Allen punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. PENALTY on NE-53-E.Martin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 54%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 16-T.Murphy to NE 22 for 16 yards (24-B.Fletcher).