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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to NE 19, Center-60-G.Warren. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 15 yards (98-V.Williams). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP