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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 35

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 88-D.Heyward-Bey to NE 31 for 4 yards (24-B.Fletcher; 91-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.47 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model