Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 81

New England Patriots 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(7:36) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to PIT 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.60 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model