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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 11 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 8-J.Scobee 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 6, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model