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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 8-J.Scobee 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.19 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP