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Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

CLE
38.3%
NYJ
61.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NYJ: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.107 vs Josh McCown (CLE) -0.035 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21
–
NYJ 25
Projected margin: NYJ by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CLE

Robert Turbin RB Out Ankle
Dwayne Bowe WR Questionable Hamstring
Justin Gilbert CB Questionable Hip
Barkevious Mingo LB Questionable Knee
Nate Orchard LB Questionable Back
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Abdomen
Pierre Desir CB Probable Concussion
Joe Haden CB Probable Hip
Duke Johnson RB Probable Concussion
Christian Kirksey LB Probable Groin
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow
Marlon Moore WR Probable Rib
Mitchell Schwartz T Probable Thumb

NYJ

Geno Smith QB Out Jaw
Stephen Bowen DE Probable Knee
James Carpenter G Probable Back
Willie Colon G Probable Knee
Antonio Cromartie CB Probable Hip
Erin Henderson LB Probable Knee
Ben Ijalana T Probable Knee
Chris Ivory RB Probable Knee
Jaiquawn Jarrett S Probable Shoulder
Jeremy Kerley WR Probable Concussion
Lorenzo Mauldin LB Probable Knee
Devin Smith WR Probable Ribs
Leonard Williams DE Probable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
NYJ 31

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:08 TD CLE (11:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass deep left to 11-T.Benjamin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 09:46 TD NYJ (9:46) 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 02:49 FG CLE (2:49) 6-T.Coons 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 10 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 00:49 TD NYJ (:49) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 87-E.Decker for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 07:56 TD NYJ (7:56) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-B.Marshall for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – NYJ 20
  • Q3 00:33 FG NYJ (:33) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. CLE 10 – NYJ 24
  • Q4 10:38 TD NYJ (10:38) 33-C.Ivory right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – NYJ 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 32%

    (11:44) 4-R.Quigley punts 37 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 35%

    (14:24) 40-T.Bohanon up the middle to CLE 45 for no gain (95-A.Bryant; 92-D.Bryant).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:30) 8-A.Lee punts 60 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 23 for 1 yard (53-C.Robertson).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (2:49) 6-T.Coons 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:42) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 12 yards (15-M.Moore; 58-C.Kirksey).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (:33) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 20%

    (7:43) 4-R.Quigley punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:02) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short middle to 82-G.Barnidge to CLE 43 for 14 yards (21-M.Gilchrist).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 26%

    (4:57) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete short right to 18-T.Gabriel.