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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 8-A.Lee punts 60 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 23 for 1 yard (53-C.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 40, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model