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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 45

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 40-T.Bohanon up the middle to CLE 45 for no gain (95-A.Bryant; 92-D.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.22 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model