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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 10 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 12 yards (15-M.Moore; 58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model