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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 46

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 4-R.Quigley punts 37 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.50 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model