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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 10 – New York Jets 31

What Actually Happened

(7:02) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short middle to 82-G.Barnidge to CLE 43 for 14 yards (21-M.Gilchrist).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model