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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 16:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

MIA
56.4%
NYJ
43.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: +0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • MIA offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (NYJ): -0.004 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIA 25
–
NYJ 20
Projected margin: MIA by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

MIA

Anthony Walker LB Out Knee
Tua Tagovailoa QB Doubtful Hip
Tyreek Hill WR Questionable Wrist
Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable Knee
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Calais Campbell DE Questionable Neck
D'Wayne Eskridge WR Questionable Finger
Jevon Holland S Questionable Wrist

NYJ

Ahmad Gardner CB Out Hamstring
Leki Fotu DT Doubtful Knee
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee
Quinnen Williams DT Questionable Hamstring
Tyler Conklin TE Questionable Calf
Alijah Vera-Tucker G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
NYJ 32

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:49 FG MIA (11:49) 7-J.Sanders 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 00:01 FG MIA (:01) 7-J.Sanders 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 08:01 TD NYJ (8:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 500th Career TD Pass for Aaron Rodgers; 5th player in NFL history to reach the 500-touchdown pass milestone. MIA 6 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 01:04 TD NYJ (1:04) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 06:38 FG NYJ (6:38) 40-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. MIA 6 – NYJ 18
  • Q4 14:17 TD MIA (14:17) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – NYJ 18
  • Q4 10:31 TD NYJ (10:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – NYJ 24
  • Q4 05:24 TD MIA (5:24) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-26-B.Echols, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. MIA 19 – NYJ 25
  • Q4 02:37 TD NYJ (2:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – NYJ 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:23) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (11:49) 7-J.Sanders 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:09) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to MIA 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-52-S.Eguavoen.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (8:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 19 yards to NYJ 26, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 26.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Hill ran ob at MIA 14 for 2 yards (89-J.Ruckert).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (:01) 7-J.Sanders 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to MIA 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:59) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to NYJ 10, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 21 for 11 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 59%

    (3:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at MIA 45 for -7 yards (sack split by 92-Z.Sieler and 91-E.Ogbah).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (8:10) 0-B.Allen right guard to MIA 15 for 2 yards (92-Z.Sieler).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (6:38) 40-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 24%

    (9:00) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass deep right to 83-M.Washington to NYJ 32 for 20 yards (26-B.Echols).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (6:11) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-R.Cracraft to NYJ 4 for 4 yards (23-I.Oliver).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley scrambles right end to MIA 39 for 5 yards (72-M.Clemons).