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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 13 – New York Jets 25

What Actually Happened

(6:11) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-R.Cracraft to NYJ 4 for 4 yards (23-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.42 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model