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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 7-J.Sanders 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP