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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 17
New York Jets 15 – Miami Dolphins 6
What Actually Happened
(8:10) 0-B.Allen right guard to MIA 15 for 2 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
The Three Options
GO
+3.25 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.02 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.11 EP
KICK
+1.95 EP
- 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT
+0.49 EP
- Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
